Identifying potential significant factors impacting zero-inflated proportion data.

Classical supervised methods like linear regression and decision trees are not completely adapted for identifying impacting factors on a response variable corresponding to zero-inflated proportion data (ZIPD) that are dependent, continuous and bounded. In this article we propose a within-block permutation-based methodology to identify factors (discrete or continuous) that are significantly correlated with ZIPD, we propose a performance indicator quantifying the percentage of correlation explained by the subset of significant factors, and we show how to predict the ranks of the response variables conditionally on the observation of these factors. The methodology is illustrated on simulated data and on two real data sets dealing with epidemiology. In the first data set, ZIPD correspond to probabilities of transmission of Influenza between horses. In the second data set, ZIPD correspond to probabilities that geographic entities (eg, states and countries) have the same COVID-19 mortality dynamics.

Use of an antiviral mouthwash as a barrier measure in the SARS-CoV-2 transmission in adults with asymptomatic to mild COVID-19: a multicentre, randomized, double-blind controlled trial.

OBJECTIVES: To determine if commercially available mouthwash with ß-cyclodextrin and citrox (bioflavonoids) (CDCM) could decrease the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) salivary viral load. METHODS: In this randomized controlled trial, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) PCR-positive patients aged 18-85 years with asymptomatic to mild coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) symptoms for <8 days were recruited. A total of 176 eligible patients were randomly assigned (1:1) to CDCM or placebo. Three rinses daily were performed for 7 days. Saliva sampling was performed on day 1 at 09.00 (T1), 13.00 (T2) and 18.00 (T3). On the following 6 days, one sample was taken at 15.00. Quantitative RT-PCR was used to detect SARS-CoV-2. RESULTS: The intention-to-treat analysis demonstrated that, over the course of 1 day, CDCM was significantly more effective than placebo 4 hours after the first dose (p 0.036), with a median percentage (log10 copies/mL) decrease T1-T2 of -12.58% (IQR -29.55% to -0.16%). The second dose maintained the low median value for the CDCM (3.08 log10 copies/mL; IQR 0-4.19), compared with placebo (3.31 log10 copies/mL; IQR 1.18-4.75). At day 7, there was still a greater median percentage (log10 copies/mL) decrease in salivary viral load over time in the CDCM group (-58.62%; IQR -100% to -34.36%) compared with the placebo group (-50.62%; IQR -100% to -27.66%). These results were confirmed by the per-protocol analysis. CONCLUSIONS: This trial supports the relevance of using CDCM on day 1 (4 hours after the initial dose) to reduce the SARS-CoV-2 viral load in saliva. For long-term effect (7 days), CDMC appears to provide a modest benefit compared with placebo in reducing viral load in saliva.

COVID-19 mortality dynamics: The future modelled as a (mixture of) past(s).

Discrepancies in population structures, decision making, health systems and numerous other factors result in various COVID-19-mortality dynamics at country scale, and make the forecast of deaths in a country under focus challenging. However, mortality dynamics of countries that are ahead of time implicitly include these factors and can be used as real-life competing predicting models. We precisely propose such a data-driven approach implemented in a publicly available web app timely providing mortality curves comparisons and real-time short-term forecasts for about 100 countries. Here, the approach is applied to compare the mortality trajectories of second-line and front-line European countries facing the COVID-19 epidemic wave. Using data up to mid-April, we show that the second-line countries generally followed relatively mild mortality curves rather than fast and severe ones. Thus, the continuation, after mid-April, of the COVID-19 wave across Europe was likely to be mitigated and not as strong as it was in most of the front-line countries first impacted by the wave (this prediction is corroborated by posterior data).